Steam Sales in 2027 Could Look Very Different for Indie Devs

Valve hopes that a small change to Steam’s homepage could improve the economics of game development across the platform.

In a post to developers last month, Valve announced that it would be changing the way it curates the “Discounts & Events” section on Steam.

“Discounts & Events” sits just below the “Featured & Recommended” section at the top of the Steam storefront. Since its inception, Valve has used “Discounts & Events” as a way to promote limited-time offers. This includes discounts on popular games as well as digital showcases like Australia and New Zealand’s own Frosty Games Fest.

Until recently, Valve has been responsible for manually managing every deal and event featured in the section. It schedules most featured discounts well in advance. This is soon to change. Beginning sometime in early 2027, Steam will start algorithmically selecting each featured spot in “Discounts & Events” based on the preferences of individual users.

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What exactly is different?

Under the previous system, some larger publishers and developers had permission from Steam to schedule their sales independently. Conversely, Valve required smaller developers to undergo a manual approval process. This not only restricted which games could appear in “Discounts & Events” but also, crucially, when they could be featured.

Developers have frequently emphasised the importance of a game’s first day on Steam. It’s not uncommon to hear speculation that if a game does not receive at least 10 positive reviews on its first day, Steam’s algorithms permanently penalise its discoverability potential. Valve has consistently dismissed this idea.

In an official support video for developers, Valve states, “Steam never makes a permanent decision about your game.” However, further reading into the documentation does suggest something similar to developer speculation. While launch-day isn’t your only shot, the best way to get your game pushed to more customers is to experience a surge in interest. This means getting a simultaneous spike in sales, page views, wishlists, etc.

Naturally, the best time for a surge like this is at launch, when players first get access to your game.

Meanwhile, other discoverability features on the platform, like the recently released Personal Calendar, are entirely focused on promoting new releases. When taken in aggregate, it’s understandable that so many developers would view a game’s release window as their make-or-break moment.

What does this mean for developers?

By switching to an algorithmically curated “Discounts & Events” section, Valve hopes to surface more games than ever before to its users. This will theoretically give exposure to many older titles with lower existing sales metrics.

The algorithm will select currently discounted games from throughout Steam’s history and market them to the players most likely to enjoy them. This is perfect as a way for smaller teams to generate renewed momentum for older titles. Developers can put a game on sale at any time and potentially achieve the kind of snowballing interest that leads to lasting success on Steam.

Valve has already begun experimenting with the change. Over the past few months, it has replaced some curated spots in “Discounts & Events” with personalised recommendations. According to Valve, this small change has already increased the number of games featured in the section tenfold. The change also generated a significant increase in page visits, wishlists, and cart additions for each game featured.

Is it Too Little, Too Late?

Last week’s Steam Next Fest reportedly featured twice as many playable demos as previous entries.

Although promising, this news may come as little consolation to studios already struggling to maintain user interest on the platform. Valve recently noted in a live Q&A that its marketplace has become flooded with generative AI clones, mostly based on the demos of unreleased games. This trend that has led some developers to remove demos from their storefront entirely.

Managing discoverability on Steam is a delicate tightrope for Valve to walk. Time has proven how even seemingly small changes to its search and recommendation systems can have an outsized effect on revenue for independent developers.

While not a direct fix to the AI cloning issue, the planned change to “Discounts & Events” theoretically rewards committed developers. Without the need for scheduled approval from Valve, any marketing efforts made after a game’s release will have a better shot than ever of paying off. A featured spot in front of potentially millions of gamers could be one well-timed discount away.